Source: Economic Events 01 November 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar
Today, our main focus is the yield-sensitive USDJPY and the Non-Farm Payrolls, including the ISM Manufacturing data set.
After the FED cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday without delivering any significant further impulses or signs in regards to future monetary policy steps, today it will be interesting to see what the next economic data sets like the NFPs and the ISM Manufacturing data deliver.
This is especially true since the FED removed in her statement the sentence "Will Act As Appropriate" and replaced it with a more data-dependent one "Will Monitor Implications of Incoming Information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the fed funds rate".
So, if the ISM data continues to trend lower and result in rising recession fears (for September, the ISM Manufacturing dropped to 47.8, the steepest contraction in the manufacturing sector since June 2009), expectations of another rate cut by the FED in December could see a significant push higher, resulting in the US dollar facing heavier selling pressure into the weekly close.
The technical relevant and, in our opinion, make-or-break level in the USDJPY can be found in the region around 108.00/30. A sustainable break below activates 106.80/107.00 as a next target on the downside.
On the other hand: better than expected NFPs and ISM Manufacturing data could lead to some USD stabilisation. And an increasing risk-on approach among market participants and resulting JPY selling could result in another attack of the region around 109.00, even though chances of a sustainable break higher remain low in our opinion, especially after the sharp drop on Thursday.
Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2014, the value of USDJPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016 it fell by 2.8%, in 2017 it fell by 3.6%, in 2018 it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.
Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
- Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
- To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
- Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.