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Will the Non-Farm Payrolls trigger a bearish push towards 105 for the USD/JPY?

Marec 06, 2020 10:30


Image of stock market

Economic Events

Source: Economic Events March 6, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

This past highly volatile week of trading, especially in US yields, is to finish with one of the most exciting trading news events among traders: the Non-Farm Payrolls.

Given the current bias among market participants, the risk-off mode and the anxious following of developments in the Coronavirus, the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls could trigger another round of volatility in US yields, particularly if numbers come in worse than expected, which could renew fears of a US recession.

After the "emergency rate cut" of 50 basis points by the Fed last Tuesday, the USD/JPY broke below 107.80/108.00 and went for a test of the region around 106.80/107.00.

It was the first "emergency rate cut" since October 2008, during the week when the Lehman Brothers Investment bank collapsed, and 10-year US Treasury yields dropped below 1.00% for the first time ever, pushing the USD/JPY dropped to its lowest levels since last October.

A disappointing print today (something significantly below 150,000) could trigger a next bearish wave, bringing the region around 106.80/107.00 under pressure.

If we get to see a sustainable break lower into the weekly close, such an move would activate the region around the 2019 yearly lows around 105.00 as a next target.

Short-term bounces, driven probably by a surprising solid print and bounce back in 10-year US yields, would find a potential stronger zone of resistance around 108.50/109.00:

Daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between December 26, 2018, to March 5, 2020). Accessed: March 5, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of USDJPY increased by 0.5%, in 2016 it fell by 2.8%, in 2017 it fell by 3.6%, in 2018 it fell by 2.7%, in 2019 it fell by 0.85%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 9.2%.

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