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Head-shoulder in Gold seems to be resolved for now

Maj 17, 2019 11:00

Economic events calendar

Source: Economic Events May 17, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


It seems as if the Head-shoulder formation we saw in Gold has passed, for now. This comes after the trade war between the US and China escalated to new heights over the last few days.

With China to raise tariffs on $60 billion of US goods beginning June 1, stopping the purchase of US agricultural products and energy, reducing Boeing orders, restricting US service trade with China, and, most significantly, discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries - the US dollar saw some heavy selling, while Gold pushed back towards 1,300 USD.

This resulted out of the fact that market participants see a new, increased chance of the Fed electing to cut rates by December of this year, with a probability of over 70% according to the Fed Watch Tool.

Now that US president Trump is postponing auto tariffs on the EU, it becomes clear that he expects the conflict with China to continue, without a sensible trade deal anytime soon.

While the head-shoulder formation is still technically in play as long as we trade below 1,310 USD, it seems to be only a matter of time until the risk-aversion of market participants pushes Gold towards, then above that level.

An initial fundamental driver could be found in today's Uni Michigan Consumer Sentiment: after we saw a revision higher to 97.2 from a preliminary 96.9 in April, a disappointment today could push the precious metal above 1,300 USD.

Technically, on the downside the picture stays the same as it has been in recent days: if we break below 1,266 USD, further losses in Gold are likely, and a first projected target can be found around 1,230/235 USD. But such a scenario needs to play out before we push back above 1,310, which is, as already mentioned, unlikely, given the current bias.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/CAD chart (between February 14, 2018, to May 16, 2019). Accessed: May 16, 2019 at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.


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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Saulius Radžiūnas, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
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